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4G took 3 years to mature: 5G will take at least 7 years

At the 2021 China (Shenzhen) 5G Industry Summit held a few days ago, Sun Songlin, a professor and doctoral tutor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, said that my country’s 5G industry is progressing rapidly, but it is also facing many difficulties. We need to face the dilemma, and industrial application is the key to breaking the game.

As of the end of last year, my country had opened 718,000 5G base stations, accounting for 70% of the world’s total, and this year will reach more than 1 million, and the scale will continue to expand.

At the same time, 5G has encountered difficulties in three aspects: capital, energy consumption, and application.

First, the capital investment is large, and the later operating costs are extremely high;

The second is high power consumption. The power consumption of 5G base stations is 1.5 to 3 times that of 4G base stations, and the high construction density leads to huge overall energy consumption;

The third is the lack of unique applications. When 5G is issued in 2019, the industry expects that the “main battlefield” will be the industrial Internet and the Internet of Things, but it is not mature enough now, and it is biased towards the consumer Internet.

Sun Songlin analyzed the three major issues one by one. First, the total 4G investment of the three major operators exceeds 900 billion yuan, and the cost has not been recovered so far. The investment in 5G has exceeded 260 billion yuan so far, plus the later operating costs, I am afraid that the cost will not be recovered.

We should see that 5G, as the information infrastructure in the “new infrastructure”, is the infrastructure of the “new infrastructure”, which has a certain long-term and public welfare nature, and its value considerations should not be limited to the return on investment in the communications industry.

The second is that 5G, as a new technology, must have its transition period, maturity period, decline period, and death period. The latest communication technology is commercially available, and power consumption is always the first priority. The maturity of technology needs time to polish, and it also needs to be gradually improved through user feedback.

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The third is the life cycle of industrialization. Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei once said that 5G will take 7 years to mature. In overseas countries, 3G and 4G have similar laws. Domestic 4G has caught up with the “double innovation”, and a large amount of private capital has been invested in the mobile Internet, accelerating the maturity of 4G, which only took 3 years. For 5G to mature, the industry must extend its long-term dimension.

Understanding the current dilemma facing 5G development, how should the industry break the situation? Sun Songlin pointed out that looking back on the history of mobile communications, 1G and 2G have solved the problem of mobile calls, and 3G and 4G have solved the problem of mobile Internet access. Each singular generation is an epoch-making change. The 5G era will usher in a new historical mission, empowering all walks of life, from serving people to more “things”.

In the 3G era, the initial advertising of operators was to make video calls, but in fact, the first popular business was Weibo, which took full advantage of people’s fragmented time.

Entering the 4G era has ushered in a wave of mobile Internet, which has completely subverted people’s lifestyles. 5G is merging with new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain. The disruptive nature of the industry will be far greater than the disruptive nature of 4G on consumption. The Industrial Internet will inevitably become the most valuable network in the future.

Sun Songlin cited two examples of the 5G empowerment industry. One is the big video industry . Short video has become a mainstream business in the 4G era. The 5G era will continue, and 4G networks will be an important supplement to 5G.

The value of 5G lies in ultra-high-definition video, such as live broadcast, with an uplink rate exceeding 20Mbps; there are also low-latency video types such as naked-eye immersive video and VR/AR; and video types that require very high bandwidth such as interactive and cloud games.

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The second is the Industrial Internet . The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology previously released version 2.0 of the Industrial Internet, dividing the network-enabled industrial Internet into four levels.

However, Sun Songlin believes that the Industrial Internet Protocol is like the “Eight Nations Alliance”, and 5G technology intervention is very difficult and requires one. Long-term running-in process. What 5G can quickly intervene is the enterprise layer,

such as the construction of a 5G enterprise private network. In 2020, Germany and Japan have successively built 5G enterprise private networks, and China is still doing trials.

“This is the best entry point for 5G.” Sun Songlin pointed out.

China is currently building a large-scale 5G network, which is far ahead of the world, and there are many voices of doubt in the industry. Sun Songlin put forward his own views on this: the same technology, different deployment will have different effects.

In the 4G era, China’s mobile Internet applications are number one in the world, and it is said that 4G will detonate the mobile Internet, but earlier deployments in the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions are not as prosperous as China. To be precise, it was the large-scale, wide-coverage 4G that detonated the mobile Internet.

From the very beginning, 5G will be deployed on a large scale and with a wide coverage. It is the same logic. In the process of long-term integration with the industry, new business forms will be produced and industrial upgrading and digital transformation will be promoted.

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